The impact of heavy vehicle traffic trends on the overdesign of flexible asphalt pavements

Given their environmental impact, the careful design of asphalt pavements is crucial. Previous research has highlighted the influence of several parameters on the outputs of different pavement design methods. In this study, the focus is on heavy vehicle trends, considering both the percentage of heavy vehicles in the average traffic flow and its evolution over time, which is usually included as a growth factor in the design inputs. Since these factors are very often assumed to be based on old estimates, the first aim of this study was to update them by exploring a recent series of continuous data collected on the Italian motorway network and showing how to infer estimates from historical traffic data. Subsequently, the variability of these input factors is introduced in standard pavement design methods to assess their influence on the design process and to quantify the risk of overdesign. While the analysis of historical heavy vehicle traffic data may reveal an overall zero-growth traffic tendency, different scenarios should be considered and assessed in cost-benefit analyses given the not negligible influence of growth factors on pavement thicknesses. This influence is shown here in different simulated design conditions, with different initial traffic volumes, share of heavy vehicles, and resilient moduli.