Low-cost carriers and European tourists in Italy: Has anything changed after the COVID-19 pandemic?

This study examines how international air passenger flows to Italy have changed after the COVID-19 pandemic, with a focus on the choice between low -cost carriers and fullservice carriers. Using a unique dataset from ISTAT and a multiple logistic regression model across 2019 (pre-pandemic), 2020 (pandemic), and 2022 (post-pandemic), we estimate the probability of choosing a low-cost carrier as a function of five European countries of origin, the Italian macro area of destination, and the season of travel. The main findings show that the hierarchy of preferences has not changed, but the magnitude of the probabilities changed substantially after the pandemic. In particular, the probability of choosing a low-cost carrier for travel to southern Italy decreased in the post-pandemic year compared to 2019, with potential implications for tourism development in peripheral regions. Furthermore, tourists who choose to fly with lowcost carriers have helped mitigate the typical summer peak season. Finally, the relative importance of origin markets changed, especially for Germany. These findings provide new evidence on post-pandemic adjustments in European air travel and offer insights for airlines and policymakers seeking to understand evolving demand patterns.