The outbreak of the Covid-19 virus for all humanity is a typical example of the birth of the black swan, a metaphor that indicates an unpredictable crisis event, because its very low probability. Statistics and probability theory teache that any deterministic hypothesis of forecasting this type of event is a chimera. More concretely, it is necessary to pay attention to the robustness of the socio-ecosystem, with respect to any crisis advent, not the pursuit of the specific black swan, which, by the way, takes different forms: from financial perfect storms to pandemics, to the unpredictable effects of climate change etc.. The paper refers to the health risk investigating the process of Urban Heat Island (UHI) which is a cause of health risk and of the increase in air pollution hazard. At the moment, there is a debate about the link between air pollution and Covid-19 diffusion, but, in any case, the precautionary principle pushes to take the opportunity of the crisis for a more sustainable city in terms air quality and citizen wellness. This paper presents a simple method to spatially classify areas of the city with different UHI-air pollution hazard, according to their morphology and land use. The possible employment of a such approach for planning has been discussed, to potentially pursue mitigation of the whole supply chain of urban climate-pollution-virus diffusion.
Take advantage of the black swan to improve the urban environment
Leone A
2020-01-01
Abstract
The outbreak of the Covid-19 virus for all humanity is a typical example of the birth of the black swan, a metaphor that indicates an unpredictable crisis event, because its very low probability. Statistics and probability theory teache that any deterministic hypothesis of forecasting this type of event is a chimera. More concretely, it is necessary to pay attention to the robustness of the socio-ecosystem, with respect to any crisis advent, not the pursuit of the specific black swan, which, by the way, takes different forms: from financial perfect storms to pandemics, to the unpredictable effects of climate change etc.. The paper refers to the health risk investigating the process of Urban Heat Island (UHI) which is a cause of health risk and of the increase in air pollution hazard. At the moment, there is a debate about the link between air pollution and Covid-19 diffusion, but, in any case, the precautionary principle pushes to take the opportunity of the crisis for a more sustainable city in terms air quality and citizen wellness. This paper presents a simple method to spatially classify areas of the city with different UHI-air pollution hazard, according to their morphology and land use. The possible employment of a such approach for planning has been discussed, to potentially pursue mitigation of the whole supply chain of urban climate-pollution-virus diffusion.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
