Several studies have demonstrated that skilled human capital is a key resource for the economic growth of a territory, since it helps to increase productivity, competitiveness and sustainability over time. The aim of this paper is to model the probability of working for university graduates three years after degree, taking into account the effectiveness and coherence of a degree with respect to the labour market. Hence, first of all, a multilevel binary logit model for measuring the probability of working will be discussed. Then, a multilevel multinomial model suitable to predict the probability of the possible job status, such as unemployed/unsteady employed/steady employed, will be further proposed. The ISTAT microdata regarding the Italian survey on the graduates' employment conditions, will be used.