The Climate of the Mediterranean Region in the Future Climate

Future climate change over the Mediterranean area is investigated by means of climate model simulations covering the 21st century that take into account different anthopogenic greenhouse gases emission scenarios. This chapter first gives some new insights on these projections coming from the use of new methodologies including the coupling at the regional scale of the atmospheric component to a Mediterranean sea component. A synthesis of the expected changes on key aspects of the Mediterranean regional climate, obtained with a wide range of models and downscaling methodologies, is then presented. This includes an overview of expected changes in the mean climate and climate extremes, but also possible changes in Mediterranean sea temperature, salinity, circulation, water and heat budgets, and sea level. The chapter ends with some advanced results on the way to deal with uncertainties on climate projections and some discussion on the confidence that we can attribute to these projections.