The COVID-19 pandemic is of course a research field that does not directly concern physics, however some techniques used and developed by physicists to study natural phenomena, such as the Monte Carlo method, can provide some useful statistical indications on the evolution of the pandemic. Using Monte Carlo simulations, through random sampling, it was possible to provide an estimate of the uncertainty in forecasting the date of a substantial reduction in the number of COVID-19 cases in Italy, an estimate that of course cannot take into account some systematic uncertainties. Emilio Segrè (1905-1989) wrote that: "Fermi had invented, but of course not named, the present Monte Carlo method when he was studying the moderation of neutrons in Rome". Fermi did not publish this method but he used it to solve numerous physics problems with every calculating machine he could have. The Monte Carlo method was later developed by Nicholas Metropolis (1915-1999), Stanisław Ulam (1909-1984) and John Von Neumann (1903-1957) and the name was suggested by Metropolis for its relationship with the study of games in casinos.

Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: a mathematical estimate

I. Ciufolini
;
2020-01-01

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is of course a research field that does not directly concern physics, however some techniques used and developed by physicists to study natural phenomena, such as the Monte Carlo method, can provide some useful statistical indications on the evolution of the pandemic. Using Monte Carlo simulations, through random sampling, it was possible to provide an estimate of the uncertainty in forecasting the date of a substantial reduction in the number of COVID-19 cases in Italy, an estimate that of course cannot take into account some systematic uncertainties. Emilio Segrè (1905-1989) wrote that: "Fermi had invented, but of course not named, the present Monte Carlo method when he was studying the moderation of neutrons in Rome". Fermi did not publish this method but he used it to solve numerous physics problems with every calculating machine he could have. The Monte Carlo method was later developed by Nicholas Metropolis (1915-1999), Stanisław Ulam (1909-1984) and John Von Neumann (1903-1957) and the name was suggested by Metropolis for its relationship with the study of games in casinos.
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11587/442436
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact